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Abstract

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CJSteele Probabilistic Services

Services

Software

Ebook

Theory Update

About

Cases

Articles
predicting and mitigating the effects of uncertainty and random
variability on technical and commercial systems

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CJSteele
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Do you work in Quality?
Do you work in Reliability?
Do you work in Risk?

If you answered yes to any of these, then do you fully understand how
random variability flows through a system? Can you look at a system and
intuitively identify the major sources of random variability?
Do you know how to apply probabilistic methods to analyse and optimise
against the negative effects of random variability?

Who am I?

Hello, my name is Clint Steele.

You can read more about me on the about page, but in a nutshell:
* I am an engineer by training
* I have worked in product design and development
* I have a PhD in probabilistic design
* I have a Master of Entrepreneurship and Innovation (MEI)
* I have run ventures of my own
* I have taught at a tertiary level

Throughout all of this, the analysis and optimisation of risk and
quality with probabilistic methods has always been my focus, my area of
expertise and my passion.

I am now an expert in this area and I want to share and all I know with
you.

What do I have for you?

The purpose of this website is to give you a correct and proper
understanding of the theory of probabilistic design and its application
to both technical and commercial systems. Admittedly, the emphasis will
be on technical systems; there is little established research on the
commercial side and I have only done a little of this myself.

On this website you will see that I have a number of things that would
be of interest to one who needs to deal with risk, uncertainty, quality
or random variability.

Robustica software

This is a free Addin for Microsoft Excel. It will effectively give you
the skills of a competent probabilistic designer in an instant. Think
Monte Carlo is the be all and end all? Think again!..

Articles page

There are a few key points to probabilistic design and analysis that
you really need to be aware of if you are looking at a site like this
for information. These are covered in the articles page.

Free consultation

To keep myself up-to-date and in touch with the quality problems that
people are facing I have a free 1/2 hour consultation service.

Article review series

On a regular basis I summarise an article from a reputable journal. I
email this summary to you along with advice on how you can put the
ideas into practice, and overcome the quality and risk problems that
you have.

Probabilistic design ebook

I have been teaching probabilistic design at a tertiary level for
years. I have now developed an excellent ebook that covers the real
core of knowledge that you need to be able to understand how random
variability affects a system and how you can optimise any system
against.

What will this site do for me?

If you take full advantage of everything on this website, then you will
have both an analytical and intuitive understanding of how random
variability works and how you can insure against its negative effects:
be they high risk or poor quality.

This is ideal for people with an interest in or need to master any of
the following:
* Design for quality
* Design of Experiments (DOE)
* Taguchi methods
* Six Sigma
* Design for Six Sigma (DFSS)
* Risk Management - technical and commercial
* Robust design, Robustness and Robustification
* Product design and development
* Quality management

What should I do now?

You should first sign up for the article review series and download
the Robustica software; they are both free and they will help give you
an instant improvement in your understanding of how random variability
or uncertainty affects risk and quality.

Then take a look at the articles to make sure that you have a good
grounding in the basic theory. If you still have some questions or
problems that you can't crack, then take advantage of
the free consultation. You'll get a tailored service and it costs you
nothing but (time that will save you even more time once you can better
focus your efforts).

If you are serious about quality and designing systems that exhibit
high quality and low risk, then download the ebook, and of course read
it.

If anything still troubles you after that, then you can support your
learning with the free consultation. This gives you an excellent chance
to not only learn, but to truly master the theory of system design for
quality and risk reduction.

Want to know more?

If at anytime you want to learn more about what I have on offer or if
you have a question, then please contact me and let me know how I can
help.

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